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Emanuele Di Lorenzo
Summary Sentence: A seminar by, Judith Curry, Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN)
Full Summary: No summary paragraph submitted.
Judith CurryCFAN's forecasts serve clients in insurance, energy and government sectors. The timescale of the next 30-50 years is an important one for financial and infrastructure decisions. The biggest climate threats to the southeast U.S. are from sea level rise and hurricanes. There is a disconnect between the projections of the IPCC based on scenarios of anthropogenic emissions, versus actual forecasts and uncertainty assessments of decadal climate change needed by decision makers, that also include scenarios of solar variability volcanic eruptions and multi-decadal ocean variability. CFAN uses a scenario generation approach to generating a more complete set of climate change scenarios, whose likelihoods are summarized using a possibility diagram that includes assessment of the plausible worst case. Apart from global warming, an important issue for sea level rise in many locations is local sinking from: geologic processes, urban development, landfills and coastal engineering, groundwater and petroleum extraction. Multi-decadal hurricane variability is substantially larger than any expected effects from global warming. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) looms large over the next 30 years, with an expected shift to the cold phase -- with substantial impacts on Atlantic hurricane activity, Greenland mass balance and Atlantic coastal sea level rise. A brief summary is presented on how CFAN's advanced hurricane forecasts are helping the insurance and energy sector make tactical decisions in advance of a landfall.
Webinar Link also available
https://global.gotomeeting.com/join/811813909
United States: +1 (646) 749-3122
Access Code: 811-813-909
