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TITLE: Serologic surveillance to monitor infection attack rates and severity
of an influenza pandemic in real-time
SPEAKER: Professor Joseph Wu
ABSTRACT:
Early estimates of transmissibility and severity of an emerging
influenza pandemic is an urgent public health priority. This is
challenging because many influenza infections are subclinical.
Population-based serologic surveillance allows accurate estimates of
infection attack rates (IAR) and severity estimates. During 2009, we
tested more than 17,800 serological specimens in Hong Kong throughout
the first wave of the H1N1 pandemic. Using these data we estimated
that the basic reproductive number was 1.38 and that 0.6% of
infections led to hospitalization. We developed a novel statistical
method for real-time serologic surveillance and estimated that about
1,000 specimens per week would allow accurate estimates of IAR and
severity as soon as the true IAR has reached 2%. Serologic monitoring
should be considered in updated pandemic plans.
