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There is now a CONTENT FREEZE for Mercury while we switch to a new platform. It began on Friday, March 10 at 6pm and will end on Wednesday, March 15 at noon. No new content can be created during this time, but all material in the system as of the beginning of the freeze will be migrated to the new platform, including users and groups. Functionally the new site is identical to the old one. webteam@gatech.edu
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TITLE: Feasibility and potential benefits of a population-wide passive immunotherapy program during an influenza pandemic
SPEAKER: Dr. Joseph Wu
ABSTRACT:
Treatment strategies of severe cases of pandemic influenza have generally focused on the use of antivirals, anti-inflammatory agents, and non-pharmacologic means such as optimal ventilator and fluid management. In contrast, passive immunotherapy with convalescent blood products has
received limited attention. We use a mathematical model to test the hypothesis that a population-wide passive immunotherapy program that collects plasma from a small percentage of convalescent individuals can harvest sufficient convalescent plasma to treat a substantial percentage of severe cases during the first wave of the pandemic. We combine an age-structured transmission model with a queueing model for plasmapheresis to estimate the demand and supply of passive immunotherapy during an epidemic of pandemic influenza in Hong Kong. We find that if at least 15% of convalescent individuals donate their plasma, more than 82% of severe cases can be offered convalescent plasma transfusion in a moderately severe epidemic. Increasing the donor percentage above 20% does not significantly boost the supply of convalescent plasma because supply is constrained by the plasmapheresis capacity during most stages of the epidemic. The demand-supply balance depends on the natural history and transmission of the disease via only the epidemic growth rate. These findings are applicable not only to pandemic influenza but also to other emerging infectious diseases. The current plasmapheresis operations in Hong Kong can provide sufficient convalescent plasma to a substantial proportion of severe cases of pandemic influenza even when only 10% to 15% of convalescent individuals donate their plasma. We recommend public health officials to consider the proposed passive immunotherapy program as a realistic pandemic mitigation option.
